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Global Estimates and Trends

global_estimates_and)trends

Global Estimates and Trends

 IOM: Facts and Figures

214 million - estimated number of international migrants worldwide
• The total number of international migrants has increased over the last 10 years from an estimated 150 million in 2000 to 214 million persons today.
3.1% - percentage of the world's population who are migrants
• In other words, one of out of every 33 persons in the world today is a migrant (whereas in 2000 one out of every 35 persons was a migrant).
• The percentage of migrants has remained relatively stable as a share of the total population, increasing by only 0.2 per cent (from 2.9 to 3.1 per cent), over the last decade.
• However, the percentage of migrants varies greatly from country to country. Countries with a high percentage of migrants include:

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UN: World Population to 2300

Projections recently issued by the United Nations suggest that world population by 2050 could reach 8.9 billion, but in alternative scenarios could be as high as 10.6 billion or as low as 7.4 billion. What will population trends be like beyond 2050? No one really knows. Any demographic projections, if they go 100, 200, or 300 years into the future, are little more than guesses. Societies change considerably over hundreds of years—as one can readily see if one looks back at where the world was in 1900, or 1800, or 1700. Demographic behaviour over such long time spans, like behaviour in many spheres of life, is largely unpredictable. Nevertheless, this report presents projections of world population, and even of the populations of individual countries, over the next 300 years. Given the inherent impossibility of such an exercise, these projections have a special character. They are not forecasts. They do not say that population is expected to reach the projected levels. Rather, they are extrapolations of current trends. They give what paths population would follow if, and only if, historical trends and trends previously forecast up to 2050 continue. Of course one cannot expect these trends to continue as is, and certainly not country by country. But the implications of current trends are important and often can only be seen by looking far enough into the future. Read more…

 

How Demographic Change Affects Development

Demographic issues are insufficiently addressed by international agencies concerned with global development. The United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) provide a framework for global development assistance but omit reference to population growth, fertility, aging, or internal or international migration. The United States, which for years led the world in championing slower population growth in poor countries as a development priority, no longer includes reference to any demographic variables in its current strategic plan for foreign assistance.

This report “How Demographic Change Affects Development” by Rachel Nugent and Barbara Seligman aims to kick-start a discussion of the principal ways in which demography is expected to affect development in the first half of the 21st century. It reviews three major demographic trends—mortality, fertility, and immigration—that will shape the size, age structure, and distribution of tomorrow’s population. It then examines key policy issues that will be impacted by these trends: global poverty, public finance and infrastructure needs, and climate change. This paper is directed at an audience of global policymakers and serves as the technical background paper for the Demographics and Development lecture series sponsored by the Center for Global Development.

 

The Future of the Global Muslim Population. Projections for 2010-2030

The world's Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population projections by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. Globally, the Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population over the next two decades -- an average annual growth rate of 1.5% for Muslims, compared with 0.7% for non-Muslims. If current trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4% of the world's total projected population of 8.3 billion in 2030, up from 23.4% of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9 billion. While the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population, the Muslim population nevertheless is expected to grow at a slower pace in the next two decades than it did in the previous two decades. From 1990 to 2010, the global Muslim population increased at an average annual rate of 2.2%, compared with the projected rate of 1.5% for the period from 2010 to 2030. Read more…

 

Demographics: A Game Changer in Global Economic Growth Prospects

The global economy is interestingly poised with developing and emerging economies growing at a rapid pace and advanced economies at a slow pace. This dual speed recovery is expected to continue as per the IMF. Within advanced economies, US economic growth is expected to be higher than previously expected whereas the Euroarea will remain sluggish. However overall global economic growth projections continue to be revised upwards. In all these developments, there is one risk which is either ignored or not paid adequate attention to - Demographics. The advanced economies are suffering from an ageing problem with old age people forming larger percentage of population in future years. This presents both short and long term challenges for growth. In the short-term it raises issues on economic recovery after the crisis. In long-term it raises questions on the finances needed to meet the pension liabilities. This paper analyses the demographic trends in key economies going forward and assess the impact it could have on their economic prospects. In particular, it focuses on how demographic pressures could impede in the recovery of the advanced economies from the 2007 recession. This is particularly important as economists and policymakers have been aware of these demographic challenges even before. It is this interconnection of demographics with the recession which makes the issue all the more complex. Read more...